KASHMIR IS BURNING IN CONFLICT AND COLD WAR BY DR.A MAJID SIRAJ: POSTED BY HABIB YOUSAFZAI, KASHMIR
DIASPORA ALLIANCE
ASSALAM-O-ALAIKUM!
They talk ‘peace’ in Kashmir in words of euphemism for war. The
cold war looms overhead like a sable cloud and Kashmir is concertinaed in the
battleground. India, China and Pakistan
are on toes in developing defense technologies and acquiring weapons that
outclass others in the subcontinent. The
inventory attained by the three is formidable.
Kashmir is embroiled in these equations because a sharp tilt in one
direction will influence an outcome on politics here. China has an important role to play because
of three important dynamic reasons. Firstly, China is making an artery of
communication from Arabian Sea to Xinjiang province through Xizang Belt to
transport oil. Roads, tunnels and passes
impact on Kashmir territory. Who will
negotiate a Treaty for this? The second
obligation is their perpetual historical dispute with India over territories of
Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh on which they are not relenting. Thirdly their defense entanglements with Pakistan
in nuclear and traditional war machinery and constructing projects in PaK
influence power balance exhorting competition and ‘peace’ initiatives are not
priority. There are irritants between
the two countries. India is seeking
amity for peace and has raised the issue in Peking. An appraisal of where the three are in this
triangle of consorting neighborhood is worthwhile.
China’s increasingly assertive posture on Arunachal Pradesh
is being carried out against the backdrop of its increased militarization in
Tibet. According to a 2010 US Department of Defense report, China has replaced
its old liquid fuelled nuclear capable CSS-3 intermediate range ballistic
missile with “more advanced CSS-5 MRBMs”.
The roads bordering India have been upgraded to highways. Intercontinental missiles, the DF-31 and
DF-31A have been deployed at Delingha, north of Tibet. 13 Regiments totaling around 300,000 troops
have been deployed along borders with India.
New airfields are operational at Hoping, Pangta and Kong Ka, in addition
to the existing six airfields in the Tibet.
Where is the enemy? China is a
nuclear power with a weapons inventory of about 240
devices. There are ongoing bellicose
exchanges over Chinese incursions in Ladakh.
The territory in dispute is Kashmir.
Who will negotiate peace?
Indian talks are
based on a position of strength. On
Chinese borders India upgraded its military presence to deploy the 290 km-range
Brahmos supersonic cruise missile and 90,000 more troops with four more
divisions in addition 120,000 troops supported by two Sukhoi 30 MKI
squadrons from Tezpur in Assam. The
recent Chinese incursion in Ladakh prompted India to deploy a further 5000
troops that has been an irritant to Chinese as widely publicized. Again India is a nuclear power with an
inventory of 100 devices. The assumption is that nuclear deterrence
will play a critical role in averting all out war between the three
rivals. India China historical argument
seems to be simmering on. The Tawang monastery in Arunachal Pradesh was the
birthplace of the sixth Dalai Lama in the 17th century and is the second
largest Tibetan monastery after the one in Lhasa. The 14th Dalai Lama may choose his successor
from the Tawang monastery prompting further Chinese claims. Indian posture over Chinese presence in
Tibet and sheltering Dalai Lama and his resistance movement is supportive of
questioning China’s legitimacy over Tibet.
India has a formidable arsenal of defense. The ballistic missile defense (BMD) program is effective to deter use of
nuclear weapons. A summary of Indian
army of 980,000 active troops would be added to reserves of 300,000
first line troops and 500,000 second line troops. There are additional 40,000 first line
troops of Territorial Army. Indian army
has a command structure of a modern army with HQ in New Delhi and
Northern operational command in Udhampur, Jammu. The army
Is equipped with 62 tank armored regiments, 5 with 62 tanks each
and 1330 tanks being locally
assembled. T-72M1: 35 regiments @ 55 tanks each, T-55: 10
regiments @ 55 tanks each, (550) with L7/105mm gun + the Vijayanta : 11
regiments @ 72 tanks each, (800+) upgraded with FCS and night fighting
equipment. The Artillery 200 regiments
with 155mm M-46: 35 guns 155mm caliber Bofors FH-77B: 410 and 105mm
Abbot: 80 self-Propelled artillery.
Rocket launchers in readiness are 122mm BM-21/LRAR: 150+ 214mm Pinaka: ~30 and 300mm Smerch: 62. The mortars in stock are 81mm Indian E1 + L1A1: 5000+ 120mm
AM-50: 1500 and 160mm Tampella: 200, Milan 2 and AT-3 Sagger, AT-4
Spigot , AT-5 Spandrel , SS-11-B1 and
Harpon. They are used against tanks
and bunkers.
There are 384 Air
Defence Guns range from 23mm:
ZSU-23-2-320 and ZSU-23-4 Shilka SP-
75, 30mm: Tunguska-M1 - 20 ; 40mm:
L40/70 - 1920 to SIPRI and Tunguska M1 systems . India has a sophisticated missile program
with ‘Surface-To-Air’ Missiles SA-6
(launchers) 160, SA-8b 50,
SA-10 24, SA-13 250,and
SA-16 launchers: 2000 to cover 'blind-areas' including the later
versions ‘ Akash and Trishul’ Surface-To-Surface
Missiles include SRBM: Prithvi
SS-150 - 15 launchers & 75 missiles in 333 Missiles. These are followed by Nag ATGM and
Astra. Army Aviation Comprises of 14 Helicopter Units. Surveillance
is conducted by unmanned Aerial Vehicles like Searcher, Nishant and
Radar: BSR Mk.2 and AN/TPQ-37,Firefinder WLS MUFAR
– Rajendra, Green Archer and Cymbelline (Mortar location).
The Arjun
Mark-I has been added to T-90. Mark-II
version enhanced night fighting capabilities with advanced equipment for the
gunner, driver and commander. On June 11, 2013
India achieved another milestone in production of Hawk AJT with successful test
flight of first Navy Hawk AJT. The
Indian politicians are aware of their strength that underpins policy on
Kashmir.
Pakistan defense is based on its
survival strategy and has been arming itself to teeth. According to reports by US Congressional
Research, Pakistan has the world’s fifth largest nuclear arsenal and is
projected to expand beyond that of France in a few years, graduating itself
from uranium-based weapons design to more miniaturized and lethal
plutonium-based warheads. An achievement
has also reportedly been the art of fission-boosted fusion devices. This design was used for a recent nuclear
test conducted by North Korea. Pakistani
thermonuclear capability may not be far behind. Pakistan has acquired fissile material for
an additional 100 warheads, taking its overall nuclear capability to well over
200 weapons. Fissile material may also be generated by the two new
plutonium-based reactors being constructed by China at Khusabh Pakistan. Cash strapped Pakistan spends on nukes
around $2.5 billion annually and a recent hefty 15 per cent hike in its defense
budget to Rs. 627 billion will be gorged by the powerful army. This vertical proliferation is accompanied
by an ever-increasing capability in delivery of medium-range ballistic missiles that have a maximum range of 2500 kilometers
and able to strike anywhere in Indian Territory. India is commissioning its
Agni series of medium-range missiles for this use. Pakistan has smaller army; therefore the
tactical nuclear weapons are in readiness for use that includes Hatf series of
short-range missiles to deter India’s nuclear weapons by the logic of
punishment, and by the logic of denial.
Any benefits accruing from Indian conventional military forays into
Pakistani territory would be denied by the use of small battlefield nuclear
weapons. Kashmir is keeping India and
Pakistan on toes and if Kashmir did not exist at all, Indo-Pak was one country
defending jointly all its borders and saving resources for development. A quick
comparison will demonstrate the enormous cost of this conflict.
Air force personal in India
of 110,000 overwhelm 45,000 of Pakistan in numbers and likewise, Indian armed
forces of 1,303,000 out-number 612,000 in Pakistan. India imports conventional arms worth $ 2375
M against Pakistan’s imports of $344 M.
India spends 2.9% of GDP and Pakistan 3.4% on military expenditure. India has 3978 tanks against Pakistan’s
2461. India has 55,000 Navy personnel
against 22,000 in Pakistan. India has
weapon holding capacity of 10,538,000 against Pakistan’s 5,407,000. India has a stock of 240 to 395 kgs of weapon
grade plutonium capable of producing 40-90 (HEU) Fission, boosted fission and
two stage thermo-nuclear devices. Pakistan
in comparison has 580 -800kgs of HEU (Highly enriched uranium) capable of
making 30 to 50 fission bombs. The
Khushab reactor produces 10-15 kgs o weapon grade plutonium every year. Both India and Pakistan are not members of
Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Pakistan’s implicit threat to turn any bilateral tensions
over Kashmir into a nuclear crisis also aims to compel international
involvement in the Kashmir issue. A raft of mutually destructive plots plague
relations between the two countries and the fate of Kashmir hangs in
balance. A dream for Peace was
conceived using the northern China border as a base for a huge triangle. Pakistan-India joint proposal to the United
Nations would be to designate that area as an International Peace Park with
access measures similar to those of the Antarctic Treaty. Similarly a Siachen International Treaty
would prohibit any form of military intrusion on the glacier including the
entire Karakoram-Western Himalayan-Shaksgam watershed to bring peace to
Kashmir.
There are three reasons why the balance of power in this
triangle will influence Kashmir. One is
the obvious entrenched place for the ultimate winner in claiming territories of
Kashmir, second is its strategic location, so that it may be become the
‘Panipat’ with its mountains and glaciers as battleground for territory and
exploitation of its waters. Thirdly it
is important to bring China on board and have a direct question of Kashmir on
the agenda. A search for a holistic
solution to Kashmir where legitimate interests of all parties are on board and
a final Treaty is consummated. People
of Kashmir are given a happy home with a complete end to their suffering. Their claim to a historical title to every
asset and land they held in 1947 is restored back to them.
Dr.A Majid Siraj majidsirajuk@yahoo.com www.kashmircaselaw.com
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