A SETBACK FOR PEACE IN VALLEY
Yeh to bahut badi himakat hai (This is a huge blunder)" was the first reaction of a mainstreamed Kashmiri to the execution of Mohd Afzal Guru on February 9. This was followed by a volley of questions: whose decision was this; whose agenda would it serve; why now when not all these years; has anyone bothered to consider what the repercussions might be on the always fragile peace in Kashmir; does anyone care about Kashmir in Delhi?
Or as Khalida Shah put it subsequently, Afzal Guru's hanging at a most inopportune time had delivered a huge setback to the painstaking process of normalisation. More philosophically, the Kashmiri might say that such is their luck that something always goes wrong when things look the best.
Fallout.Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has had to bear the brunt of the Kashmiri ire over the hanging. It makes his position extremely vulnerable if not untenable. He had consistently argued against Guru's execution because of its ramifications and the difficult position he would be placed in. Which reminded one of what Prof Abdul Ghani Butt had once said: Kashmiris are descended from Nagas-Not quite straight but leave them alone and they will never bother you; but unnecessarily provoke them or cross their path and they sting hard. Had their path been violated again?
Omar Abdullah's angry reaction within a day of the execution would suggest so. Dr Farooq Abdullah has remained stubbornly loyal to the UPA, however much he may be troubled within but National Conference leaders in the valley have found it impossible to conceal their disapproval. As MP and senior leader Mehboob Beg put it, the NC had been rendered virtually politically impotent. Whatever the long term implications for the party that Omar Abdullah alluded to in reference to Kashmir, the next election is not going to be as easy for the National Conference as 2008.
For the PDP, the hanging has provided a political lifeline. And it has grasped it with both hands; directly attacking the Chief Minister and accusing him of being a party to the conspiracy to execute Guru. Allegations that the National Conference will find hard to live down in the immediate aftermath of the hanging.
Kashmir has been in mourning for over a week. Anger is palpable but more than that is the hurt and disappointment over what is perceived as grave injustice to Kashmir. Nothing is more dangerous than the despair and sullenness in the valley. The take it or lump it attitude just does not work in Kashmir. If it did, we would never have a problem.
How this will play out in the long term only time will tell. Between the worst and best case scenarios there are always grey areas which provide opportunities for peace and reconciliation in Kashmir. It is a difficult situation which needs sensitive and skillful handling. More than 800 years ago the sage and historian, Kalhana in his immortal work Rajtarangini had observed that "Kashmir could be conquered not through arms but through virtuous deeds." It was virtuous deeds that earned us respect in Kashmir in the mid 1990s once militancy had been contained by the security forces. Somewhere, somehow we seem to have lost the script.
Pakistan.The security forces have again demonstrated admirable restraint in containing the situation thus far. What shape militancy might take in the summer or in time to come is anybody's guess. Kashmiris want peace more than anything else but peace with honour and dignity. Pakistani 'niyat' always plays a role. Of late for whatever reasons Pakistan has been holding back in Kashmir but it has its tentacles widely spread in the valley, not only among the separatists but increasingly the mainstream as well-in a subtler less conspicuous manner than Yasin Malik caught on camera with Hafiz Mohd Saeed. And can the Kashmiri be blamed for looking west when he feels all avenues denied to him within? In Lahore, Yasin Malik is the 'Jawai Babu'; here we are threatening to lock him up even though he could not have gone across without an Indian brief. Something just doesn't gel. Why the 'insecurity'?
Engagement.Omar Abdullah has suggested that Delhi should revisit the political process in Kashmir. Engagement is the key. Our standard response is that Kashmiris are not prepared to talk or not sincere about dialogue. Not so long ago the moderates among the separatists were engaged in what they thought was a serious dialogue with GOI, so much so that they came to be branded as 'Advani Hurriyat' in the valley. For the present it may be easier to revive the political and democratic process by seriously involving Dr Farooq Abdullah, still the most solid bridge between Srinagar and Delhi and the former Union Home Minister Mufti Mohd Sayeed. Whatever their prejudices they know each other and Kashmir better than anyone else. In course of time separatists of all hues need to be included in dialogue. It seems unlikely, but it is not inconceivable that the separatists may even contemplate participating in the 2014 elections if they could be assured a level political playing field and no repeat of 1987. Pakistan too needs to be in the loop.
According to the electoral calendar, general elections will be due before elections in Kashmir in 2014. However, it may be prudent to hold elections in Kashmir before the national elections-because who knows by then the devil may have taken the hindmost. And there could still be something to retrieve from the elections in Kashmir in 2014.The writer is a former chief of the Research and Analysis Wing.
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/afzal-guru-hanging-kashmir-peace-process-omar-abdullah-a-s-dulat/1/251070.html
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